March 2012 Initial Sells Estimates: Hello, AVX!

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By Todd Allen

Here’s the drill: Diamond has released the top 100 titles and relative rankings for the monthly comics for March 2012.  Since Walking Dead is usually a fairly consistently selling title, I’m going to plug last month’s Walking Deadnumbers ( Comichron had January’sWalking Dead estimated at 32,361) into Diamond’s rankings.  That should get us relatively close to the formal estimates that should be out soon.  If Walking Dead had a good month, the numbers should be higher.  If Walking Dead had a bad month, the numbers will be lower.  History suggests this will be within +/- 5%, if not +/- 1%, praise to Great Kirkman.

I’m looking at these estimates and AVX is not anywhere near the 250K copies Marvel has been talking about.  I’ve got it at ~194K.  I ran another set of numbers, bumping up the Walking Dead total to 34K copies — a bit over a 5% jump from February.  With that reference point, I still only came up with ~203.7K.  Marvel total sales tend to be 10-20% higher than the Diamond estimates, and at +20%, that’s still just 244K.  And using 34K as the baseline would have Justice League and Batman only dropping about 1K in sales from February, which seems a bit small.

Possible explanations:

  • Walking Dead had a REALLY good month and so did the market.
  • AVX had REALLY strong UK orders
  • Marvel has some non-Diamond channels for ~20K copies that we’re not seeing
  • Somebody rounded up to get to 250K

That said, Amazing Spider-Man looks to be solidly up, or at least one issue of it is.  Fairest has a very strong debut at 30K.  Fatale is holding fairly steady and it’s possible it might even be up when the “real” estimates come in.  On the whole, Marvel’s top tier doesn’t appear to be making any gains, except for AVX. We’ll have to wait a month to see what kind of a rising tide AVX provides for all the crossover titles.

1
159.48
AVENGERS VS X-MEN #1
MAR
193,874
2
105.58
AVENGERS VS X-MEN #0
MAR
128,350
3
103.37
JUSTICE LEAGUE #7
DC
125,663
4
100
BATMAN #7
DC
121,566
5
79.18
AVENGERS ASSEMBLE #1
MAR
96,256
6
72.07
ACTION COMICS #7
DC
87,613
7
70.82
GREEN LANTERN #7
DC
86,093
8
70.56
DETECTIVE COMICS #7
DC
85,777
9
59.1
BATMAN THE DARK KNIGHT #7
DC
71,846
10
52.27
SUPERMAN #7
DC
63,543
11
51
FLASH #7
DC
61,999
12
48.94
AQUAMAN #7
DC
59,495
13
48.04
BATMAN AND ROBIN #7 [*]
DC
58,401
14
45.19
UNCANNY X-MEN #8
MAR
54,936
15
44.85
AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #682
MAR
54,523
16
44.72
UNCANNY X-MEN #9
MAR
54,365
17
44.29
AGE OF APOCALYPSE #1
MAR
53,842
18
43.7
AVENGERS X-SANCTION #4
MAR
53,125
19
42.82
WOLVERINE AND X-MEN #7
MAR
52,055
20
41.01
AVENGERS #24
MAR
49,854
21
40.94
AVENGERS #24.1
MAR
49,769
22
40.93
AMAZING SPIDER-MAN #681
MAR
49,757
23
40.58
NEW AVENGERS #23
MAR
49,332
24
40.35
TEEN TITANS #7
DC
49,052
25
40.28
WONDER WOMAN #7
DC
48,967
26
38.36
UNCANNY X-FORCE #23
MAR
46,633
27
38.01
GREEN LANTERN NEW GUARDIANS #7
DC
46,207
28
36.79
BATWOMAN #7
DC
44,724
29
36.33
ULTIMATE COMICS SPIDER-MAN #8
MAR
44,165
30
35.86
BATGIRL #7 [*]
DC
43,594
31
35.67
NIGHTWING #7 [*]
DC
43,363
32
35.49
KICK-ASS 2 #7 (MR)
MAR
43,144
33
34.4
GREEN LANTERN CORPS #7 [*]
DC
41,819
34
33.07
FANTASTIC FOUR #604
MAR
40,202
35
32.68
CAPTAIN AMERICA #9
MAR
39,728
36
32.09
AVENGING SPIDER-MAN #5
MAR
39,011
37
31.81
INCREDIBLE HULK #6
MAR
38,670
38
31.61
SWAMP THING #7
DC
38,427
39
29.93
DAREDEVIL #10
MAR
36,385
40
29.55
SAGA #1 (MR) [*]
IMA
35,923
41
29.41
RED LANTERNS #7 [*]
DC
35,753
42
29.21
WOLVERINE #302
MAR
35,510
43
29.16
FF #16
MAR
35,449
44
28.55
WOLVERINE #303
MAR
34,707
45
28.26
X-MEN LEGACY #263
MAR
34,355
46
28.22
X-MEN LEGACY #264
MAR
34,306
47
28.13
X-MEN #26
MAR
34,197
48
27.98
CATWOMAN #7 [*]
DC
34,014
49
27.41
WINTER SOLDIER #3
MAR
33,321
50
27.29
RED HOOD AND THE OUTLAWS #7 [*]
DC
33,175
51
27.22
SUPERCROOKS #1 (MR)
MAR
33,090
52
26.83
ASTONISHING X-MEN #48
MAR
32,616
53
26.66
MIGHTY THOR #12
MAR
32,410
54
26.62
WALKING DEAD #95 (MR)
IMA
32,361
55
26.17
SUPERGIRL #7 [*]
DC
31,814
56
26.04
ANIMAL MAN #7 [*]
DC
31,656
57
25.6
SCARLET SPIDER #3
MAR
31,121
58
25.49
JUSTICE LEAGUE DARK #7 [*]
DC
30,987
59
25.29
ULTIMATE COMICS ULTIMATES #8
MAR
30,744
60
24.94
FAIREST #1 (MR)
DC
30,319
61
24.92
JUSTICE LEAGUE INTERNATIONAL #7 [*]
DC
30,294
62
24.69
WOLVERINE AND X-MEN ALPHA AND OMEGA #3
MAR
30,015
63
24.67
INVINCIBLE IRON MAN #514
MAR
29,990
64
23.61
ULTIMATE COMICS X-MEN #9
MAR
28,702
65
23.38
DEFENDERS #4
MAR
28,422
66
23.35
SUPERBOY #7 [*]
DC
28,386
67
23.25
SUICIDE SQUAD #7 [*]
DC
28,264
68
23.16
AVENGERS CHILDRENS CRUSADE #9
MAR
28,155
69
22.7
VENOM #14
MAR
27,596
70
22.69
BTVS SEASON 9 FREEFALL #7
DAR
27,583
71
22.53
CARNAGE USA #4
MAR
27,389
72
21.97
DEADPOOL #52
MAR
26,708
73
20.62
BIRDS OF PREY #7 [*]
DC
25,067
74
20.49
GREEN ARROW #7 [*]
DC
24,909
75
19.53
CAPTAIN AMERICA AND BUCKY #628
MAR
23,742
76
19.14
STORMWATCH #7
DC
23,268
77
18.71
X-FACTOR #233
MAR
22,745
78
18.55
FEAR ITSELF FEARLESS #10
MAR
22,551
79
18.5
BATMAN BEYOND UNLIMITED #2
DC
22,490
80
18.22
FEAR ITSELF FEARLESS #11
MAR
22,149
81
17.91
ALL STAR WESTERN #7 [*]
DC
21,773
82
17.52
PUNISHER #9
MAR
21,298
83
17.13
AVENGERS ACADEMY #27
MAR
20,824
84
17.02
HUNTRESS #6
DC
20,691
85
16.97
JOURNEY INTO MYSTERY #635
MAR
20,630
86
16.94
MOON KNIGHT #11
MAR
20,593
87
16.88
HULK #49
MAR
20,520
88
16.88
NEW MUTANTS #39
MAR
20,520
89
15.87
FATALE #3 (MR) [*]
IMA
19,293
90
15.79
X-23 #21
MAR
19,195
91
15.76
MAGIC THE GATHERING #3
IDW
19,159
92
15.56
MARVELS AVENGERS PRELUDE FURYS BIG WEEK #1
MAR
18,916
93
15.54
DEMON KNIGHTS #7 [*]
DC
18,891
94
15.47
LEGION OF SUPER HEROES #7 [*]
DC
18,806
95
14.97
THUNDERBOLTS #171
MAR
18,199
96
14.89
SECRET AVENGERS #24
MAR
18,101
97
14.88
BATWING #7 [*]
DC
18,089
98
14.74
TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES ONGOING #8
IDW
17,919
99
14.39
BATMAN ODYSSEY VOL 2 #6
DC
17,493
100
14.22
STAR WARS DAWN O/T JEDI FORCE STORM #2
DAR
17,287


Comments

  1. Zoomy says:

    The other possible explanation is that some of the sales will show up on next month’s chart – this is an April comic, after all, it just appears on this one because Marvel shipped it a week early.

  2. Torsten Adair says:

    20,000 Digital copies?

  3. As there’s a second printing already, I would expect that some sales will show up in the next month. We went through this on Justice League #1…

    http://blog.comichron.com/2011/09/justice-league-1-tops-200k-copies-with.html

    …and we figured that UK kicked in around 20k, and then some more came in.

    It is sometimes hard to parse these announcements; if a publisher speaks of print run, for example, that could throw in newsstand, which is something of a black box.

  4. SomeGuy says:

    New Mutants v3 is getting down to the cancel line (20k) after months of steadily eroding sales. Even Fear Itself didn’t spike sales (not like Age of X!), and since then it’s been a slow, steady decline. I guess Marvel will shuffle creative teams after the AvX event (which NMv3 is not part of) – last time they did this, they brought in DnA to resurrect sales above the 20k line. The boost worked until after FI. I wonder what Marvel’s plans are? Cancel this book and get a cheap #1 with another title? Bring in another writer?

  5. Wonderer says:

    Nr. 40 – Saga 1 – 35.923
    Nr. 96 – Secret Avengers 24 – 18.101

    I’m gonna take a guess here and say someone accidently switched these???

    Saga being where Secret Avengers usually is, and Secret Avengers being where new image nr. 1’s usually are??

    Hate to pop the optimism bubble regarding Saga but can anyone really explain why Secret Avengers would have lost half its sales one month from another?

  6. Hmm, it’s possible they were mixed up, but Scarlet Spider comes between those two in alphabetical order…

    More likely that Secret Avengers has ended up split between the March and April charts for some reason (it came out on the last week of the month). There was an announcement that Saga had sold out, which would probably mean more than 18K sales.

  7. I assume that Secret Avengers #24 shipped in the last week of the month and that some sales will show up on the chart next month. 18,101 in sales seems very low and would put the book in cancellation territory.

  8. Wonderer says:

    I thought that it was the final week thingy too at first, but none of the other titles shipping at that date seem to show any glitches.

    That it went to second printing would mean the first printing was too low – and since the second printing isn’t in stores before april 11th (according to what I found via google searches) it would seem possible that the 2nd printing is not counted on the march chart. Which would mean a low’ish march number for Saga 1. Around the usual nr. 1’s for Image.

    Like I said in my first comment, it’s just a guess, I’m not claiming it’s a fact, I’m just curious.

  9. No, Wonderer, Saga #1 was not swapped with Secret Avengers #24.

  10. RS David says:

    I think there was an issue with Secret Avengers #24. It was scheduled to ship the last week of March, but I know stores in Seattle did not recieve until this week.

  11. Ruwan Jayatilleke says:

    *yawn*

  12. CagedLeo730 says:

    There was a shipping error with Secret Avengers. A whole lot of stores didn’t receive their shipments. That’s why it’s not counted. It’ll show up on next month’s charts.
    Monthly sales charts analysis are flawed because of under-ordering and books that sell over a few months. The fact that DC had Superman #1 go for a 3rd print right now, means that back issues are still selling.

  13. Vinet says:

    “20,000 Digital copies?”

    LOL

  14. MOLIERAC FREDERIC says:

    But these charts are not about real sales but from the orders from the retailers. If the shipment are late, it doesn’t interfere with the orders that were due 2 months before? No?

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